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Freight Markets

Logistics Managers' Index hits 70.7 in October as holiday stocking pushes inventory costs to their highest since March 2022

The LMI's transportation prices reading stayed near 88 while transportation capacity kept contracting, and the survey's aggregate logistics cost measure rose to its highest since March 2022.

By Arjun ·
A warehouse loading dock with trailers backed up to the doors and cars parked in the lot
Photo: David E. Lucas, Digital Public Library of America via Wikimedia Commons · Public domain

The Logistics Managers' Index (LMI) read 70.7 for October, up 0.5 from September's 70.2 and the second-highest reading since March 2022. The monthly survey of supply chain executives, released November 3, said inventory buildup ahead of the holiday season drove the gain.

Any reading above 50 means logistics activity is expanding. The index has now been above 70 in three of the last five months, after more than four years without clearing that level, according to the researchers who compile it.

Inventories and costs

Inventory Levels rose 8.0 points to 66.9, the fastest expansion since September 2022. Inventory Costs rose 8.9 points to 88.8, the highest since March 2022.

The LMI said downstream retailers (69.6) built inventory slightly faster than upstream firms (64.1) this month, which it read as retailers stocking up for holiday sales. Late-October respondents reported faster inventory growth (72.1) than early-October respondents (61.8).

Freight prices and capacity

  • Transportation Prices: 88.0, down 4.7 points but still a very strong rate of increase.
  • Transportation Capacity: 38.0, up 3.6 points and still contracting.
  • Transportation Utilization: 63.5, down 2.6 points and still expanding. Upstream firms reported 69.3, compared with 53.6 for downstream firms.
  • Aggregate Logistics Costs: 257.5 on a 0-300 scale, up 11.4 points from September's 246.1 and the highest since March 2022.

The LMI authors wrote that the pressure on logistics costs makes it likely supply-driven inflation will keep rising in the near term.

Warehousing

Warehousing Capacity read 43.5, up 4.2 points but still contracting. Upstream firms reported 37.5 and downstream firms 50.0. Smaller firms (0 to 999 employees) reported 40.0, compared with 48.3 for larger firms.

Warehousing Prices rose 7.2 points to 80.7, the first reading in the 80s in more than two years and the fastest rise since May 2022. Warehousing Utilization fell 5.5 points to 58.8 and kept expanding.

What respondents expect

Respondents forecast the overall index at 69.1 twelve months from now, up 0.5 from the September forecast. They expect Transportation Prices at 90.0 and Transportation Capacity at 49.3, close to the 50 line between contraction and growth.

Upstream firms expect much faster expansion (74.3) than downstream firms (64.1). The gap comes mainly from inventory: upstream respondents forecast Inventory Levels at 71.8, while downstream respondents forecast 51.8.

What it means for shippers and carriers

The survey shows tight capacity and high prices across both trucking and warehousing going into the peak season. Shippers that need storage or truck capacity in November and December are competing for it at prices well above last year's. The LMI's October 2025 transportation prices reading was 61.7, against 88.0 now.

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