Spot rates slip on cheaper fuel while linehaul holds firm, DAT says
DAT's Oct. 10-16 data show all-in spot rates down 2 to 4 cents a mile, almost entirely because of lower fuel surcharges, while linehaul stays about a third above last year.
National average broker-to-carrier spot rates fell for all three main equipment types in the week of Oct. 10-16. According to DAT Freight & Analytics, almost all of the decline came from fuel surcharges, not from the rate carriers earn for the haul.
The all-in dry van rate averaged $3.09 a mile, down 3 cents from the week before. Reefer averaged $3.66, down 2 cents, and flatbed averaged $3.64, down 4 cents. DAT said lower diesel prices took 3 to 4 cents a mile off the average fuel surcharge.
Linehaul rates, which leave out fuel, hardly changed:
- Van: $2.26 a mile, essentially flat
- Reefer: $2.76 a mile, up 1 cent
- Flatbed: $2.65 a mile, essentially flat
Fewer loads, but capacity is still tight
Load posts on the DAT One load board fell 3% to 2.6 million for the week. Equipment posts slipped 1% to 184,126.
Van loads dropped 6%, and the van load-to-truck ratio eased to 9.7 from 10.3. The reefer ratio slipped to 15.8 from 16.2. Flatbed was the only segment where the ratio rose, to 36.5 from 35.7, as flatbed loads increased 1% and trucks fell 2%.
The year-over-year numbers matter more than the weekly dip. DAT analyst Dean Croke said truck posts are running 21% to 27% below a year ago, while load posts are 12% to 23% higher. As a result, linehaul rates are about a third higher than last year: up 35% for van, 33% for reefer and 29% for flatbed.
DAT said flatbed linehaul is 26% above its nine-year seasonal average and above the top of its nine-year range for this point in the year. Reefer linehaul is 68 cents a mile higher than a year ago, the biggest year-over-year gain in cents of the three equipment types. Midwest reefer freight was strongest. The Upper Midwest had the highest reefer rate of the top origin regions, up 13 cents to $3.65 a mile, and the Lower Midwest followed, up 10 cents to $3.33.
Contract rates are still climbing
Rates in the much larger contract market are still rising. The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, which covers both spot and contract truckload pricing, rose to 154.8 in September. That was 0.6% higher than August and 10.1% higher than a year earlier.
The Cass report said the monthly gain was slower than the 0.9% year-to-date average, likely because spot rates had pulled back somewhat and few contract bids happen at this time of year. It added that the contract market is still adjusting higher. The index is on pace for a 7% increase in 2026.
What it means for carriers
When all-in rates fall but linehaul holds, as they did this week, fuel is the cause, not weaker freight. DAT said capacity is still the main thing driving prices. When you compare offers week to week, look at linehaul and fuel surcharge separately.
DAT's 35-day RateCast forecast has van linehaul easing to $2.23 a mile by late November, reefer edging up to $2.78 and flatbed slipping to $2.59.
Fuel has also turned back up. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's national on-highway diesel average rose 9.7 cents to $6.276 a gallon for the week of Oct. 19, after three weekly declines.