US declines to renew USMCA at first joint review, triggering annual reviews

The United States declined to renew the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement at the trade pact's first mandatory joint review on July 1, 2026. The decision leaves the agreement in force but sets up a cycle of annual reviews.

The review

The USMCA requires its Free Trade Commission, made up of government representatives from the three countries, to hold a joint review on the sixth anniversary of the agreement's entry into force. The three countries met virtually on July 1.

In a statement the same day, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the United States "did not agree to renew the USMCA in its current form" and that "as a result, the USMCA is not renewed." He said the United States would keep engaging with Mexico and Canada to address what it called the agreement's shortcomings and U.S. trade deficits with both countries. Greer said the agreement "remains in force pending resolution of these issues or until the Agreement's termination."

Mexico and Canada each confirmed their support for a 16-year extension, according to an analysis by the law firm White & Case.

What did and did not change

White & Case said the agreement neither lapsed nor expired. It noted that the USMCA's 16-year term runs through July 1, 2036, and that preferential tariffs, rules of origin, investment protections and dispute settlement remain in effect.

Because the United States did not confirm an extension, Article 34.7.4 of the agreement now requires a joint review every year. The three countries can still extend the pact for 16 years at any time if their heads of government confirm it in writing, the firm said.

Separate tracks for Mexico and Canada

The United States has negotiated with Mexico and Canada separately. U.S. and Mexican negotiators held rounds in Mexico City on May 28-30 and in Washington on June 16-17. USTR said a third round would take place the week of July 20.

Canada took part in the July 1 meeting but had not begun substantive text-based negotiations with the United States, according to White & Case. The firm said Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc had confirmed that Canada's priority was addressing U.S. sectoral tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos and lumber.

What it meant for carriers

USMCA tariff preferences and rules of origin stayed in place after July 1, so qualifying goods continued to move under the agreement's terms.

White & Case noted that the annual reviews could recur through 2036, creating repeated decision points on an extension.