Cass asks whether freight downturn is nearing an end
The Cass Freight Index for November, released in December 2024, showed the narrowest annual shipment decline in 21 months and a third straight rate increase.
In December 2024, the Cass Freight Index report for November asked whether the long freight downturn was "nearing an end." Cass Information Systems released the report on Thursday, Dec. 12, FreightWaves reported. The report was written by Tim Denoyer, a vice president and senior analyst at ACT Research, according to Logistics Management.
Shipments
The shipments component rose 0.5% from October to 1.086, after two straight monthly declines. In seasonally adjusted terms, the index jumped 2.8%.
Shipments were down 0.7% from November 2023, the narrowest year-over-year decline in 21 months. The report credited ongoing economic growth and slowing private fleet capacity additions.
Cass said the normal seasonal pattern would still leave shipments down about 3% year over year in December. The index fell 5.5% in 2023 and was on track for a 4% decline in 2024.
Spending and rates
The expenditures component, which measures total freight spending, rose 0.9% from October to 3.203. Its year-over-year decline moderated to 3.8% from 5.9% in October.
Cass inferred that rates rose 0.4% in November, the third straight monthly increase. Inferred rates were down 3.1% from a year earlier, after a 3.6% decline in October. The report said most of the remaining pressure came from lower fuel prices and that underlying rates had started to inch higher.
The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index rose 0.8% to 139.1, its third straight small increase from a cycle low in August. Its year-over-year decline narrowed to 1.1%, from 2.2% in October and 3.5% in September. Cass said the index seemed unlikely to turn positive until early 2025.
Outlook
"Spot rates have started to increase, and even contract rates are starting to turn slightly positive as bid activity picks up seasonally," the report said, according to FreightWaves. It also pointed to "temporary pre-tariff shipping" in the first half of 2025 as a potential near-term positive for the for-hire market.
What it meant for carriers
Cass shipments were within 1% of year-earlier levels, and inferred rates had risen for three months in a row. The report said private fleets had shown "a surprising willingness to add capacity" despite wider than normal cost disadvantages. It said private fleets may continue to limit for-hire demand, but that for-hire activity would likely benefit as their growth slowed.